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Walmart (NYSE: WMT) August 2022 Earnings Summary | Consumers Weaken


Walmart beat both revenue and Non-GAAP EPS estimates for the quarter. However, the company is under pressure from inflation and poor inventory planning last year.

Quick Numbers

Reporting Period: May 1, 2022 – July 31, 2022 (Q2 FY2023 — That’s not a typo. Walmart does consider this 2022 period a part of fiscal year 2023.)

Total Revenue: $152.9 Billion (up 8.4% YoY and above Wall Street estimates of $150.8 Billion)

Non-GAAP EPS: $1.77 (down 0.6% YoY but above Wall Street estimates of $1.62)

Operating Income: $6.9 Billion (down 6.8% YoY and would have been worse except Walmart International operating income was up 21.1% even while Walmart U.S. and Sams Club operating incomes were both down)

Operating Cash Flow: $9.2 Billion (down 25.8% YoY)

Free Cash Flow: $1.7 Billion (down 77% YoY, partly due to decreased operating cash flow and partly due to increased capital expenditures)

Cash & Cash Equivalents (Balance Sheet Asset): $13.9 Billion (down 39% YoY)

Inventories (Balance Sheet Asset): $59.9 Billion (up 25.5% YoY — That’s much more than inflation alone could account for).

Short-term Borrowings (Balance Sheet Liability): $10.6 Billion (up 1485% YoY — That’s not a typo.)

Working Capital (=Current Assets – Current Liabilities): – $15.7 Billion (Yes, that’s a negative number. Negative working capital is pretty common for retail businesses, but the number has grown somewhat concerning for Walmart. For the same quarter last year, working capital was only – $2.9 Billion.)

Overview

There are two primary factors affecting Walmart’s business: (1) Inflation and (2) the get-out-of-retail strategy.

First, record inflation is affecting Walmart’s business in numerous ways. On the one hand, it is bringing more middle and high income earners to shop at Walmart rather than more expensive stores. On the other (larger) hand, it is putting a lot of pressure on consumers so that they are spending more on groceries and less on other, higher-margin categories like apparel, electronics, and home goods. The overall result has been a reduction in margins which is why EPS is lower than last year even while revenue is higher.

In parallel to the inflation drama, Walmart is also trying to diversify its revenue in what I like to call the get-out-of-retail strategy. The company is launching and expanding numerous businesses to collect more B2B and subscription (both of which tend to be more stable revenue sources than retail). During the earnings call, Walmart’s executives talked about 3 of these ventures: Walmart+, Walmart Connect, and Walmart GoLocal.

Walmart+

Walmart+ is membership program that sounds suspiciously like Amazon Prime. For $98/year, you get discounts on fuel at Exxon, Mobil, Walmart, and Murphy gas stations. You also get free Walmart deliveries on orders of at least $35 (with some restrictions). And starting next month (September 2022), Walmart+ will also come with free access to Paramount+ streaming. They probably should have just called the program Walmart Prime.

Walmart Connect

Walmart Marketplace is an online marketplace for third party businesses and operates in a very similar way to Amazon Marketplace. Walmart has even started using its stores as fulfillment centers so that sellers have the option to pay Walmart to warehouse and ship their products just like they could do with Amazon FBA if they used Amazon Marketplace.

Walmart Connect is an omni-channel advertising marketplace. That means Walmart allows businesses to buy sponsored product positions on Walmart Marketplace, but also businesses can pay to place ads on the self-checkout machines or on the display TVs in Walmart stores.

Sponsored product listings on Amazon vs Walmart.com
Walmart Connect ads running on in-store display TVs

The number of active Walmart Connect advertisers is up 121% year over year, and advertising is one of the main strategic priorities for Walmart going forward.

Walmart GoLocal

Walmart GoLocal is a white label delivery-as-a-service platform for businesses offered by Walmart. Currently, customers are mostly large companies, but Walmart is trying to convince smaller businesses to also use GoLocal to create their own on-brand delivery services.

Management and Strategy

Walmart has recently replaced some of their management team, and they are also trying to do a lot of things at once. That does make me a bit concerned that they may be spreading themselves a bit thin and/or investing into non-optimal businesses. “GoLocal” for example is basically a whitelabeled version of Instakart which means it should have even lower profit margins (as white labeled products almost always have lower margins than branded products). But gig economy companies have struggled to turn a profit even WITH branded products. Hmm…

I also question whether the Walmart management team might be a bit too optimistic in their future outlook. In May 2022, Walmart’s management said that Q2 was “off to a good start from a sales perspective”. Then mid summer, they revised down guidance and said that Q2 was going poorly. Now they say that Q3 is off to a better start than Q2, but should we believe them?

Appendix A: Walmart business segments

Walmart Inc. divides its business into three reporting segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club.

Appendix B: Walmart fiscal years

Walmart does not use the conventional calendar year for accounting purposes. Instead, the company uses a fiscal year which starts on February 1. The primary reason for this is that there are a lot of Holiday season returns in January so by including January in Q4 of the previous year, financial results more accurately reflect total net Holiday season earnings.

One additional oddity of Walmart accounting is that the fiscal year starting in February of a particular year will be labeled as the next year. For example, the fiscal year that began on February 1, 2020 was called FY2021, and the fiscal year that began on February 1, 2022 was called FY2023. That means the August 2022 earnings report discussed in this article which covered the period from May 1, 2022 to July 31, 2022 was technically covering Q2 of FY2023.

Appendix C: References

The 5 highest-crime counties in Texas


These are the 5 counties with the highest crime rates in Texas according to 2019 (and where available 2020) crime data. All violent, property, and other crimes are counted for the purpose of this ranking.

5. Nueces County

This Corpus Christi county in southern Texas has a population of over 360,000 and a crime rate of 6.09%. That means there are more than 6 crimes for every 100 residents.

Nueces County, Texas

Population: 362,000

Crime rate: 60.9 per 1000 residents

4. Dawson County

The rates of burglary and assault are each almost twice the national average, and the rape rate is about 2.4 times the national rate. Dawson’s population of 13,000 is also far less educated than the national average.

Dawson County, Texas

Population: 13,000

Crime rate: 62.1 per 1000 residents

3. Howard County

Bordering Dawson County to the southeast, Howard county has a population of 36,000 and a crime rate 6.26%.

Howard County, Texas

Population: 36,000

Crime rate: 62.6 per 1000 residents

2. Potter County

This Texas panhandle county around Amarillo has a population of 118,000 and a crime rate 6.43%.

Potter County, Texas

Population: 118,000

Crime rate: 64.3 per 1000 residents

1. Lubbock County

Lubbock County is the most dangerous county in Texas. Oddly, there seems to be a decent amount of misinformation about this online. Several articles say that crime used to be bad but that it has since improved. Niche.com even reports a murder rate of zero — suspiciously low for a county with a population over 300,000. If you look at the crime data from the FBI and the Texas Department of Public Safety, however, the truth is apparent: Lubbock is an incredibly dangerous area even today. The overall crime rate is almost 7%.

Lubbock County, Texas

Population: 308,000

Crime rate: 69.4 per 1000 residents

Bonus Fact: Lubbock is dangerous not just because of humans but also because of mother nature. Throughout the year, the county gets tornadoes, dust storms, snow storms, heat waves, and hurricane force winds.

References

Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Explained (Full Detail Version)


Bankruptcy–the death of a company. Or is it?

American Airlines, Trump’s Plaza Hotel, Hertz, and superhero company Marvel are just a few of the big name companies which are very much alive despite having gone bankrupt. They managed to do this by using the right type of bankruptcy.

You see there are actually six different types of bankruptcy. Each is named after the chapter of federal bankruptcy law that describes it.

  • Chapter 7 bankruptcy (also called “liquidation bankruptcy”)
  • Chapter 9 bankruptcy (for when cities, counties, and other local governments go bankrupt)
  • Chapter 11 bankruptcy (also called “reorganization bankruptcy”)
  • Chapter 12 bankruptcy (for farmers)
  • Chapter 13 bankruptcy (an especially lenient type of bankruptcy only available to individuals with relatively low income and debt levels)
  • Chapter 15 bankruptcy (for international bankruptcy cases)

Chapter 7 bankruptcy is the most common type of bankruptcy, and it’s what most people intuitively think of when they hear the word “bankruptcy”. In a chapter 7 bankruptcy, a company will sell all its assets and shut down permanently.

In contrast, a company that enters chapter 11 bankruptcy does so with the hope of coming out the other side stronger. As we’ll see later in this article, there are things which can block that from happening, but according to Forbes about 25% of companies do make it through chapter 11 and become successful again.

What benefits does chapter 11 bankruptcy give to a company in debt?

All six types of bankruptcy serve the same general purpose as far as the government is concerned: to protect struggling debtors (people who owe money) from creditors (people who are owed money). The Supreme Court emphasized this in a 1934 case where their decision statement said:

“[Bankruptcy] gives to the honest but unfortunate debtor… a new opportunity in life and a clear field for future effort, unhampered by the pressure and discouragement of preexisting debt.”

Putting aside the 100 year old language from that statement, the reason the government cares is that people (and companies) with crippling debt don’t spend money in the economy, and they don’t pay a lot in taxes. The government would rather let investors and creditors take a loss than the economy and government revenue take a loss. That is self-evident from the fact that in every type of bankruptcy, certain tax debts cannot be forgiven. Nevertheless, bankruptcy is generally good for debtors and bad for creditors.

There are five common ways in which bankruptcy can help debtors:

  1. Debt collectors can be temporarily blocked by court order. That gives the debtor breathing room to figure out how to proceed.
  2. Certain debts can be erased.
  3. Debts can be renegotiated according to a payment plan that has lower payments, possibly extending over a longer time span.
  4. The debtor can break certain contracts such as leases without any penalty.
  5. The debtor can “reset” certain contracts that have gone into default.

Which of these tools are available and which contracts or debts they each apply to depends on which type of bankruptcy the debtor uses. For chapter 11 bankruptcy specifically, the primary benefits to the debtor are:

  1. An automatic block on most debt collection that lasts for the duration of the case or until the judge orders otherwise.
  2. The debtor has the choice to break any executory contract without penalty. An executory contract is any contract which is incomplete on both sides. For example, ongoing service contracts, retainers, and unexpired leases. An example of a non-executory contract would be a prepaid purchase agreement where one party has already paid for something but the debtor hasn’t delivered it. The debtor cannot cancel that kind of contract.
  3. Some debts can be reduced or eliminated if enough creditors agree (importantly, not all creditors need to agree for this to happen).

Now if we switch to a creditor’s perspective, bankruptcy is typically bad. Creditors don’t want to have the debts they are owed reduced. For that reason, creditors will often race to try to collect debts before a company files bankruptcy.

However, there are rare instances when a creditor might actually prefer bankruptcy, and they can file what’s called an “involuntary bankruptcy petition” to make that happen. The main reasons why a creditor might do this include:

  • The debtor recently sold or gave away assets that the creditor wants to collect, and the creditor wants to “undo” that transfer under the fraudulent conveyance doctrine.
  • The creditor is worried that the debtor will fraudulently transfer assets in the future, so the creditor files an involuntary bankruptcy to prevent that.
  • The creditor is worried about the debtor paying off “favored creditors” and leaving nothing for them.
  • A small, resource-constrained creditor is worried about other, bigger creditors getting to the debtor first and collecting all the assets before the small creditor can.

Involuntary bankruptcies do happen for all of the reasons above, but they are relatively rare. In the rest of this article, we’ll focus exclusively on voluntary bankruptcy where the debtor has filed for bankruptcy themself.

What is the outcome of chapter 11 bankruptcy?

Bankruptcy is a legal process that determines who gets what when there’s not enough to go around. The chapter 11 bankruptcy process in particular provides a set of rules for a company in debt to renegotiate its debts and other contracts. The goal is to reduce the burden of debt payments so that the company in debt can survive and eventually pay back more of its debts than it would be able to if it just shut down altogether.

If negotiations are successful, then the debtor, creditors, and court will make a new set of agreements described in a document called the “reorganization plan”. The reorganization plan is the centerpiece of the entire chapter 11 process. It will describe what existing contracts will be cancelled (including any existing stock that will cancelled), what new contracts will be created (including any new stock that will be issued), any assets the debtor will sell, any mergers or acquisitions the company will undergo, and who will the lead the restructured company after bankruptcy. Creating, agreeing upon, and implementing the reorganization plan is the entire purpose of chapter 11 bankruptcy.

What are the exact steps in a chapter 11 bankruptcy?

Step 0: Pre-bankruptcy planning

A company realizes it is approaching insolvency and starts talking with bankruptcy attorneys. If it decides on chapter 11 bankruptcy, then it will retain a bankruptcy attorney as legal counsel and together with its counsel will select a jurisdiction. The choice of jurisdiction is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT as bankruptcy cases depend on both federal and state law, and even the specific judge involved can have a large influence on what happens in the case. Many companies will choose to file in Delaware if they are incorporated in Delaware.

Step 1: Filing a bankruptcy petition

The company will file a petition for chapter 11 bankruptcy with the court it chose in the last step. This petition can be either accepted or rejected (acceptance is not automatic). If the petition is accepted, then the petitioner is referred to as the “debtor” and is considered to have officially entered bankruptcy. The debtor can submit a reorganization plan at the time of filing or at any point during the case.

Step 2: Automatic stay begins

As soon as a chapter 11 petition is filed, the bankruptcy court will automatically order a type of injunction known as an “automatic stay”.  This is a court order that temporarily suspends and prevents any foreclosures, debt collection activities, and repossessions of property by creditors.

Step 3: “Debtor in possession” role assumed

Once bankruptcy begins, someone must serve as fiduciary of the debtor’s assets on the creditors’ behalf. In many types of bankruptcy including chapter 7 bankruptcy, it’s common for the court to appoint a trustee (called the “case trustee”) to take control of the debtor’s assets during the case.  However, because the entire point of chapter 11 bankruptcy is to give the debtor a chance to restructure its debt and survive, it’s much more common for the court to allow the debtor to retain operational control of its assets during the case.  If that happens (it almost always does), the debtor is referred to as the “debtor in possession”.  The debtor in possession does not have total freedom like it did before entering bankruptcy, but it can essentially operate as normal when it comes to normal business operations.

Oversight of the debtor in possession is primarily done by the U.S. Trustee.

Not to be confused with a case trustee or the debtor in possession, the U.S. Trustee is the subcomponent of the DOJ which is responsible for overseeing the administration of bankruptcy cases.  Responsibilities of the U.S. Trustee include:

  • Monitoring the debtor in possession’s operation of the business
  • Monitoring any reports and fees submitted by the debtor in possession
  • Conducting a meeting of the creditors (the “section 341 meeting”)
  • Determining & imposing requirements on the Debtor in Possession.  These requirements may include filing monthly income and operating expense reports, establishing new bank accounts, paying employee withholding and other taxes, etc.  If the Debtor in Possession does not comply with the U.S. Trustee’s requirements, the U.S. Trustee can file a motion to have the chapter 11 case dismissed or converted to another type of bankruptcy such as chapter 7.

The Debtor in Possession is legally required to pay a fee to the U.S. Trustee every quarter until the bankruptcy case is closed.

NOTE:  In North Carolina and Alabama, bankruptcy administrators perform essentially the same role that U.S. Trustees play in the other 48 states.  Bankruptcy administrators are under the Administrative Office of the United States Courts though rather than the DOJ.

DIP financing

One of the first priorities for a debtor in possession is to evaluate whether they have enough money to finance the bankruptcy proceedings and also continue operating as a business.  If not, then the debtor in possession will try to get a special type of loan called debtor-in-possession financing (or DIP financing).  Ordinarily, a creditor would not want to lend to a company that is already in bankruptcy because it can’t pay its existing debts.  However, bankruptcy law provides a solution.  If a lender provides DIP financing, then it will get priority over existing creditors to get paid back.  That gives a lot of protections to any lenders who provide DIP financing.

Cases of special concern

If the U.S. Trustee or an equity owner of the debtor is concerned about fraud, dishonesty, incompetence, or severe mismanagement by the debtor’s current management, then they can request that the court appoint a case trustee to manage the debtor’s affairs during the case rather than leaving the debtor in possession of its own affairs. In the absence of such concerns, it is still possible for the court itself to appoint a trustee if it determines that doing so is in the best interest of creditors. However, it is rare that a case trustee is ever actually appointed in a chapter 11 case. Creditors or equity owners who are concerned about current management should weigh the costs and risks of a trustee before requesting one:

  • The case trustee essentially becomes the debtor’s new CEO. It may be difficult to find a qualified CEO on short notice and expensive to hire them if you do find them. It can be even more expensive than normally hiring a CEO since the individual has to take substantial risk to involve themself with a bankrupt company.
  • A company going through bankruptcy is one which is already under considerable stress. That means the trustee will have very little margin for error when learning to operate the company. A misstep could easily destroy any remaining company value.

For concerned stakeholders, there is an intermediate option between debtor in possession and case trustee. In this intermediate scenario, the debtor remains mostly in control. However, a second party called an “examiner” is appointed to conduct any investigations into the debtor’s affairs rather than leaving such investigations to a potentially dishonest existing management team. The role of an examiner is highly flexible. The court can essentially authorize an examiner to have anything from minimal investigatory powers up to almost full trustee powers. Examiners are not commonly used, but they can be a good solution for large companies with questionable management teams.

Step 4: Committee(s) are formed

As soon as practical after the automatic stay begins, the U.S. Trustee will appoint some of the unsecured creditors to serve on a committee (the “unsecured creditors committee“). No creditor is forced to serve on the committee if they don’t want to, but unsecured creditors almost always want to as the role gives them power to influence the direction of the bankruptcy case. Typically, the committee consists of the 7 largest unsecured creditors.

The U.S. Trustee also has the power to appoint additional committees of creditors and/or equity owners if it believes that doing so is necessary to ensure adequate representation of creditors or equity owners in the bankruptcy case.

One of the first roles of the creditors committee(s) is to participate in a meeting with the U.S. Trustee and the debtor (called the “section 341 meeting”). This meeting is an opportunity to question the debtor under oath about the debtor’s actions, conduct, property, and case administration.

Section 1103 describes the full powers and duties of committees, but two key powers are:

  • The right to investigate the actions and finances of the debtor (including ongoing aspects of the debtor’s business)
  • The right to request the appointment of a trustee or examiner

Step 5: First day motions filed

If a debtor is under serious financial pressure, they will often file “first day” motions with the court as soon as the bankruptcy begins. In court, a motion just means a request made to the judge.  First day motions commonly include things like a request to maintain existing bank accounts, maintain and provide assurances to utility companies, honor customer deposits, and pay pre-petition debts to critical vendors that the debtor needs to maintain a working relationship with in order to continue operating during the bankruptcy case.

Step 6: Post-petition disclosure statement(s) submitted

As I mentioned before, the ultimate goal of the chapter 11 process is to create a reorganization plan and reach sufficient consensus among creditors and equity owners for that plan to be accepted by the court. However, before any class of creditors or equity owners can vote on a proposed plan, a disclosure statement must be provided to them. The same or different disclosure statements can be provided to each class of creditor and equity owner, but every individual or company in a particular class will receive the same statement. For every class, the disclosure statement must contain “adequate information“. What exactly constitutes “adequate information” is case dependent in general, but must always include:

  • A discussion of the federal tax consequences of the proposed plan to the debtor
  • A discussion of the federal tax consequences of the proposed plan to a hypothetical “typical investor” in that class of creditors or equity owners

Before any version of a disclosure statement is sent out, the court must hold a hearing and formally approve the statement as containing “adequate information”. This hearing passes no judgement on the merits of the plan, merely on the merits of a disclosure statement for the plan.

If a plan is rejected, revised, and resubmitted as a materially different plan, then new disclosure statements will need to be approved and then sent to creditors and equity owners.

Important Note: Neither the disclosure statements nor reorganization plans are required to comply with ordinary non-bankruptcy rules about solicitations for the sale of securities.

Step 7: Reorganization plan proposed

The reorganization plan has the power to wipe out huge debts and cancel stockholder ownership rights. Because of that power, chapter 11 law provides specific rules about who can propose plans and who can vote on plans.

During the first 120 days (4 months) of a bankruptcy case, only the debtor can propose a reorganization plan. This is called the “exclusivity period”. If the case is complex, the bankruptcy court has the power to extend the exclusivity period but only up to a maximum of 18 months.

If the debtor and creditors have not agreed on a reorganization plan by the end of the exclusivity period, then creditors can also draft their own plan proposals to be voted on. That is usually bad for the debtor.

Terminology

A very common jargon word in chapter 11 plans is “impaired”. A creditor is “impaired” by a reorganization plan if the creditor’s contractual rights would be altered by the plan. Two minor caveats to that definition are that (1) a creditor is considered impaired even if the contractual alterations are net positive to them, and (2) a creditor is NOT considered impaired if a debt in default is “reset” to a pre-default state.

Plan requirements

Section 1123(a) of the Bankruptcy Code specifies what provisions must be included in any proposed plan. Some of the most important items are:

  • The different categories (called classes) of creditors (e.g. unsecured creditors, creditors secured by liens on company owned trucks, and creditors secured by a mortgage on a particular property, etc)
  • Which classes of creditors would not be impaired under the plan
  • Which classes of creditors would be impaired under the plan, and how
  • A description of any mergers or consolidations that are part of the plan

If you’re curious what a real reorganization plan looks like, here is a copy of Winn Dixie’s chapter 11 reorganization plan as filed with the SEC.

Pay out priority

Given that companies enter bankruptcy when they don’t have enough money to pay all their obligations, a very important question in any bankruptcy is: who gets paid first and who gets paid last?

By default, any reorganization plan must pay out in a particular order: First secured creditors are paid, then unsecured creditors are paid, and finally interest (i.e. equity) holders are paid. Commonly, secured creditors are paid back in full, unsecured creditors are paid back only part of what they are owed, and interest holders don’t get anything.

However, not all unsecured creditors are treated equally. The Bankruptcy Code actually specifies a particular order for specific unsecured debts to be paid back:

  1. Case administrative expenses
  2. Wages and commissions for employees and some independent contractors of the debtor, up to $10,000, that were earned within the last 180 days before bankruptcy was filed
  3. Contributions to an employee benefit plan in compensation for services within the last 180 days before bankruptcy was filed, up to $10,000 per employee minus the amount from the wages and commissions mentioned before
  4. Unpaid debts to farmers and fisherman, up to $4000 per individual farmer or fisherman
  5. Deposits put down for the purchase of property or services or the lease of property, up to $1,800 per individual depositor
  6. Taxes and government penalties
  7. Unsecured claims to banks
  8. Liabilities for deaths or personal injuries

Now after hearing all of that, it might seem like general unsecured creditors are pretty screwed. To be frank, they often are. However, they are not necessarily as screwed as you might guess. The chapter 11 bankruptcy process itself is expensive, and additionally there are legal protections that make it difficult to pass a reorganization plan if some creditors get little to nothing. Because secured creditors are often risk-averse banks who would rather take a small loss and move on than risk more time and losses from drawn out bankruptcy litigation, they will sometimes agree to give up some of the their payout to the unsecured creditors so that the plan can move forward.

Step 8: Reorganization plan voted on

To be accepted, a reorganization plan must be voted on using a particular type of voting. To describe that voting system, I need to make one tweak to what I said earlier. I’ve been referring to “classes of creditors”. Technically, what we care about are not classes of “creditors” but classes of “claims”. A claim is basically a debt. It’s not a nuance worth mentioning in a high-level overview, but it does affect the voting process since technically it is classes of “claims” which vote not classes of “creditors”. If a single creditor holds multiple types of claims, then it may cast its vote multiple times with different weights in each class of claims it is a part of. Let me explain with an example:

Example

Suppose Shoelaces Inc files for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Bob has an unsecured claim for $130,000 against Shoelaces Inc. Alice has an unsecured claim for $50,000. Candice has an unsecured claim for $70,000 and a secured claim for $50,000 (secured by a shoelace making machine). Drake has a secured claim of $10,000 (secured by computer server).

There are three classes of claims against Shoelaces Inc: (1) unsecured, (2) secured-by-shoelace-machine, and (3) secured-by-computer-server.

In the unsecured claims class, Bob, Alice, and Candice all have voting power.

  • Alice: 50,000 unsecured claim class votes
  • Bob: 300,000 unsecured claim class votes
  • Candice: 70,000 unsecured claim class votes
  • Total: 420,000 unsecured claims class votes

In the secured-by-shoelace-machine claims class, only Candice has voting power:

  • Candice: 50,000 secured-by-shoelace-machine claims class votes
  • Total: 50,000 secured-by-shoelace-machine claims class votes

In the secured-by-computer-server claims class, only Drake has voting power:

  • Drake: 10,000 secured-by-computer-server claims class votes
  • Total: 10,000 secured-by-computer-server claims class votes

Each class of claims will vote on a proposed reorganization plan. A class of claims accepts the plan if at creditors holding at least (a) 1/2 of the claims in number and (b) 2/3 of the claims in amount, vote for the plan.

For example, if Bob votes for the plan but Alice and Candice vote against it, then Bob satisfies the 2/3 requirement since he owns 71.4% of the total claims amount (greater than 2/3) but the vote fails overall because less than 1/2 of the claims holders voted for the plan. In this example, that would not have happened if Candice was restricted to only vote as part of the secured-by-shoelace-machine claims class.

Owner votes

While less important than the creditors, owners (also referred to as interest holders) also get to vote on plans. A class of interests (e.g. common stock A, common stock B, preferred stock, etc) accepts a plan if holders of at least 2/3 of that class of interest vote for the plan. This is the same as for classes of claims except that we don’t have the 50% requirement stacked on top.

Special rules

If a particular class of claim or interest is left unchanged by the reorganization plan, then that class is automatically considered to have accepted the plan. Similarly, if a class would not get anything from a proposed plan (e.g. common stockholders are often such a class in the case of a public company filing chapter 11), then that class is automatically considered to have rejected the plan.

Additionally, if the court believes that any creditor or interest holder is not acting in good faith or is acting against the rules of bankruptcy, then that creditor or interest holder can be excluded from any votes by court order.

Additional special rules apply if any creditor or interest holder has agreed to a plan that was drafted before the debtor actually filed their chapter 11 petition.

Step 9: Reorganization plan confirmed

To be confirmed, a reorganization plan needs to meet both legal and class voting requirements. The full list of requirements is enumerated in section 1129(a), but the main ones to remember are the following:

  1. The plan contains all information required by the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.
  2. Any payments made by the debtor for services related to the bankruptcy case have been approved by the court.
  3. The proponent of the plan (usually the debtor) has disclosed the identity and affiliations of any individuals who would become officers or directors of the debtor under the plan.
  4. Any governmental regulatory commission with jurisdiction over rates of the debtor (mostly applies to utility companies) has approved any rate change proposed by the plan.
  5. For each class of claims or interests that is impaired by the plan, one of the following criteria must be satisfied: (a) each holder in that class has accepted the plan, (b) each holder in that class will get property with at least as much value as they would have received under a chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy, or (c) in the special case that 1111(b)(2) applies to claims of the class, then the amount specified by 1129(a)(7)(B) must be provided.
  6. Each class of claims or interests has either accepted the plan or is contractually unimpaired.
  7. If a class of claims is impaired under the plan, then at least one class of impaired claims has accepted the plan. For purposes of this requirement, no acceptances by insiders count.

What happens if the reorganization plan isn’t confirmed?

If the parties of a chapter 11 bankruptcy case cannot come together and pass a reorganization plan, then there are three scenarios that might happen.

Cramdown. The first scenario is called a “cramdown” (so named because the plan that is “crammed down” the throats of dissenting creditors). If any impaired class does not accept the plan, then the only option to confirm the plan is by using a cramdown. The full rules for cramdowns are described in section 1129(b) of the Bankruptcy Code, but the two key requirements are:

  1. The plan does not “discriminate unfairly” (essentially meaning that one class of creditors is not treated worse than another unless there is a business or contractual reason to do so).
  2. The plan is “fair and equitable” with respect to each class of impaired, unaccepting claims or interests.

The meaning of “fair and equitable” is described in 1129(b)(2) but an essential requirement is that higher priority classes are paid fully before anything is paid to lower priority classes.

Conversion. The second scenario is that (usually at the debtor’s request) the case is converted to another type of bankruptcy. Most of the time when this is done, the conversion is to a chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy where the debtor company shuts down altogether.

Case Tossed. The third scenario is that the court decides the debtor has not been acting in good faith. In that situation, the court may toss the case and leave the debtor to be ravaged by creditors through ordinary debt collection procedures.

Step 10: Exit bankruptcy

Once a reorganization plan is confirmed, there are still things that may need to happen before the debtor can officially exit bankruptcy:

  • Any conditions that the plan is contingent upon must be met
  • The plan goes into effect on the “effective date” which is usually at least 10 days after the confirmation date
  • A court order is issued that “discharges” any debts or liabilities of the debtor in accordance with the plan
  • Bankruptcy case is officially closed by the court

Appendix A: Limitations

In the discussion above, I have largely assumed that we are talking about a public company that has voluntarily filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. If the bankruptcy is involuntary, if the debtor is an individual, or if the debtor qualifies as a small business, then somewhat different rules apply.

Furthermore, nothing in this article should be considered legal or investment advice.

Appendix B: Selected claim types

507(a)(2) claims:

  • Administrative expenses allowed under section 503(b) of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code
  • Unsecured claims of any Federal reserve bank related to loans made according to section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act
  • Any fees and charges assessed against the estate under chapter 123 of U.S.C. Title 28

507(a)(3) claims:

  • Unsecured claims allowed under section 502(f) of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code

507(a)(4) claims:

  • Allowed unsecured claims up to $10,000 per individual or corporation, earned within 180 days (6 months) before the date that the bankruptcy petition was filed. The earnings must be in the form of wages, salaries, or commissions.

Appendix C: Adversary proceedings

Bankruptcy law specifies that some types of disputes that arise within a bankruptcy case should be handled in separate “mini-cases”.  These mini-cases are called adversary proceedings.  Some of the most common issues that are litigated in adversary proceedings are:

  • Determining the dischargeability of a debt
  • Handling fraudulent transfers (which can be done under Bankruptcy or state law)
  • Handling preference claims (regarding payments made shortly before the bankruptcy petition was filed)
  • Blocking post-petition payments

Most bankruptcies do not involve adversary proceedings, but when fraud is involved or in large complex cases, adversary proceedings frequently arise.

Appendix D: References

Federal bankruptcy laws & regulations

Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Adversary proceedings

Bankruptcy & fraud

Bankruptcy & securities law

Wells Fargo misses EPS & Revenue on Q2 2022 Earnings


Wells Fargo reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of 74 cents on $17 billion in revenue versus the 80 cents on $17.5 billion expected by Barron’s. This continues the trend of financial companies consistently missing analyst estimates this quarter. However, Wells Fargo still plans to increase its dividend by 20% in Q3.

Wells Fargo financial summary from the company’s Q2 2022 Earnings Press Release

Noninterest income was down 40% from 2Q21. This was mostly due to massive gains on equity securities in 2Q21 versus moderate losses in 2Q22. Wells Fargo’s affiliated venture capital business accounts for most of that change.

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf had this to say about the change in income:

“Looking ahead, our results should continue to benefit from the rising interest rate environment with growth in net interest income expected to more than offset any further near-term pressure on non-interest income. We do expect credit losses to increase from these incredibly low levels, but we have yet to see any meaningful deterioration in either our consumer or commercial portfolios.”

Importantly, Scharf seems to mean “deterioration to below pre-pandemic levels” rather than “deterioration from Q1 2022” or “deterioration over the past year”. During the earnings call, Scharf did say that consumer deposits declined to pre-pandemic levels (but didn’t say below pre-pandemic levels). Scharf, like many other finance company executives, seems to be uncertain whether this decline is only a return to baseline or whether it will continue and eventually trend below baseline.

Consumer & Real Estate Trends Mentioned by Wells Fargo

  • Consumer spending slowing in May & June 2022
  • Consumer spending on apparel and home improvement is down double digits versus last year, but travel spending (including fuel) is up
  • Consumer credit & small business credit remain strong (no signs yet of stress, but some decline back towards pre-stimulus levels)
  • Total mortgage originations (inlcuding refinances) declined 10% from Q1 (that’s a big quarterly decline!). Wells Fargo expects further decline in mortgage originations in Q3.
  • Auto loan originations down significantly

Below are 4 charts on consumer spending & loan demand (corporate card spending not included for example).

Commercial Banking Trends Mentioned by Wells Fargo

  • Higher rates & loan balances
  • Credit utilization rates increasing but still not back to pre-pandemic levels
  • Loan growth driven by larger clients
  • Deposit betas expected to continue to increase this year

References

Biggest Industry Sectors in the U.S. by Revenue and Number of Businesses


Based on government census and federal reserve data, the biggest U.S. sector by revenue is wholesale trade. Wholesaler companies generated $10 Trillion in gross revenues last year which represents 23.3% of all recorded revenues.

Combined, the biggest 8 out of 19 sectors comprise 84% of total revenues. The exact percentages and revenues (in Trillions of USD) are represented in the pie chart below. Note: These numbers are the sum of revenues of companies in a given sector. They will generally sum to more than GDP because the revenue of a company producing an intermediary product or service is counted in these statistics but is not counted in GDP numbers. Also be aware that these are estimates and do have a margin of error.

Total gross receipts (in Trillion of USD) by sector

Interestingly, there is a substantial difference between the biggest sectors by revenue and the biggest sectors by number of companies. The professional, scientific, and technical services sector is the single largest industry sector by number of businesses (over 811,000) but is only 7th by total revenues. On the other hand, manufacturing was the second largest sector by total revenues but does not even crack the top 8 by number of businesses. Do note however that these statistics do not include business entities which have no employees (and self-employed individuals do not count as employees).

Number of businesses (as percentage of all U.S. businesses) by sector

The total revenues and number of companies for all 18 major business sectors (the 19th is a miscellaneous “other” category that isn’t very informative) are displayed in the table below.

Sector DescriptionSector NAICS CodeNumber of CompaniesTotal Revenues
18Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting1122,641$40.0 Billion
17Management of Companies and Enterprises

(e.g. offices of bank holding companies, regional & corporate offices of large companies)
5526,956$138 Billion
16Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

(includes performing arts companies, theater companies, musical groups and artists, sports teams, agents & managers for artists and athletes, independent writers & performers, museums, zoos, botanical gardens, theme parks, gambling & casino companies, golf courses, skiing facilities, gyms, etc)
71130,107$308 Billion
15Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction2119,080$464 Billion
14Educational Services

(includes private schools, colleges, universities, and professional schools, professional & management development training, trade schools, flight training, athletic training, exam prep & tutoring services, language schools, and educational support services)
6193,500$472 Billion
13Utilities225957$656 Billion
12Real Estate, Rentals, and Leasing

(includes e.g. rented and leased equipment & vehicles, not just real estate)
53309,369$764 Billion
11Transportation & Warehousing48-49185,028$1.02 Trillion
10Accommodation & Food Services

(includes hotels, RV parks, campgrounds, restaurants, food delivery & catering services, etc)
72539,886$1.08 Trillion
9Administrative, Support, Waste Management, and Remediation Services

(e.g. employment services, temp help services, professional employer organizations, document prep services, call centers, telemarketing services, private mail carriers, collection agencies, credit bureaus, travel arrangement & planning services, security services, facility cleaning & maintenance services, waste collection & treatment services, etc)
56347,829$1.10 Trillion
8Information

(e.g. publishers, video production, music production, TV & Radio, telecommunications, data processing & hosting, software publishers, web search, etc)
5179,662$1.81 Trillion
7Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

(e.g. legal services, accounting services, consulting services, architectural & engineering services, testing laboratory services, design services, IT services, marketing & advertising services, PR services, veterinary services (but not medical services), and R&D services)
54811,320$2.12 Trillion
6Construction23701,477$2.29 Trillion
5Health Care & Social Assistance

(e.g. hospitals, doctors, dentists, nursing homes, social workers, therapists, etc)
62655,069$2.91 Trillion
4Finance & Insurance52238,408$4.97 Trillion
3Retail Trade44-45647,927$5.63 Trillion
2Manufacturing31-33248,039$6.35 Trillion
1Wholesale Trade42298,127$10.0 Trillion

You might be wondering how wholesale trade can generate almost twice the revenue of retail trade. After all, doesn’t everything sold by a wholesaler go to a retailer who then sells it for even more? I’ll answer this as well as explain the main revenue contributors to each sector in the section below.

What are the biggest U.S. industry sectors by revenue? (Explained)

1. Wholesale Trade

The $10 Trillion in wholesale revenue is primarily driven by 5 product categories:

  • Over $1 Trillion in wholesaled vehicles, vehicle parts, and vehicle supplies
  • Over $1 Trillion in wholesaled drugs, creams, ointments, lotions, cosmetics, perfumes, and toiletries
  • Over $1 Trillion in wholesaled groceries and related products
  • Over $1 Trillion in wholesaled petroleum products
  • Almost $1 Trillion in wholesaled household appliances and electronics

Additionally, about $800 Billion in revenue was generated by wholesale agents, brokers, and marketplaces.

The reason that the total revenue of the wholesale sector can be larger than the total revenue of the retail sector is that wholesalers do not just connect manufacturers and retailers but also connect different manufacturers working on different stages of the manufacturing process as well as manufacturers and other wholesalers. This means that the total revenue number can effectively count the same item multiple times as it is assembled by various manufacturers and transported to a final retailer.

2. Manufacturing

The over $6 Trillion manufacturing sector revenue is primarily driven by 3 product categories:

  • Over $1 Trillion in transportation equipment
  • Almost $1 Trillion in food products
  • Almost $1 Trillion in chemical products

Like wholesalers, manufacturers can also sell intermediate parts to other manufacturers which means the total revenue number is inflated over what you’d find if you were to only look at net manufacturing output.

3. Retail Trade

The almost $6 Trillion retail sector revenue is driven by many product categories, but three of the largest are:

  • Over $1.3 Trillion in cars and car parts
  • Over $1 Trillion in food & beverage
  • Almost $500 Billion in building materials and garden equipment

Perhaps surprisingly to tech-minded people, the total retail sales for online shopping is only about a tenth of the total retail revenue, and over of half of that is attributable to Amazon. This is actually more impressive than it seems however since the total retail number includes vehicle sales.

4. Finance & Insurance

The $5 Trillion finance & insurance sector is driven almost entirely by three main categories:

  • Over $2.6 Trillion from insurance (the vast majority of which is insurance carrier revenue with brokers and agents only bringing in a small fraction of the total)
  • About $1.5 Trillion from credit intermediation & related activities (this includes commercial banking, credit unions, credit cards, sales financing, consumer lending, trade financing, mortgage brokering, etc)
  • Almost $700 Billion from securities, commodity contracts, and related investment activities

5. Health Care & Social Assistance

The almost $3 Trillion health care & social assistance sector has 2 primary revenue drivers and 2 secondary revenue drivers that together constitute almost the entire sector:

  • Over $1 Trillion from hospitals
  • Over $1 Trillion from other outpatient care (e.g. doctor offices, dentists, medical diagnostics, family planning centers, chiropractors, mental health services, etc)
  • About $275 Billion from nursing & residential care facilities
  • About $225 Billion from social assistance (e.g. services for the elderly and people with disabilities, child day care services, vocational rehab services)

Custom Industry Reports

Whether you’re an investor, consultant, banker, executive, or analyst, great decisions require great data and great data-derived insights. Before investing in a new line of business for example, you’ll want to answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of this industry?
  • What are the adjacent markets?
  • How well does the industry perform during recessions?
  • Is the industry growing or shrinking? How quickly?
  • How profitable are companies in this industry?
  • How capital intensive is this industry?
  • What financial benchmarks should be used to understand a company’s performance in this industry? What are typical values for those financial benchmarks (including all standard financial ratios)?
  • Who are the main competitors in this industry?
  • What do supply chains look like in this industry?
  • What are the financial strengths & weaknesses of companies historically in this industry?
  • What macroeconomic and cultural trends are affecting this industry or might affect this industry (either positively or negatively)?
  • Are there any legal or tax advantages or handicaps in this industry?
  • What are the most likely risks to this industry?
  • What are some of the long-tail (black swan) risks in this industry? E.g. what kind of technologies, regulatory changes, tax changes, geopolitical conflicts, geological disasters, weather disasters, fire disasters, biological disasters, (e.g. diseases of humans, animals, or plants), flood disasters, solar flare disasters, or cultural shifts in preferences would be necessary to severely disrupt the industry?

We answer all of those questions and also provide extensive data, data visualizations, and forecasts in our custom industry reports. Unlike some companies which charge $1000 for organized census data without real analysis, we give organized census data away for free (e.g. this article). Meanwhile our custom reports provide actual insights, rating checklists for businesses in a given industry, and benchmarking models in addition to tons of data, charts, and diagrams (20+ pages worth in total!) And they’re cheaper too.

A few interesting examples of industries we have analyzed in the past include:

  • Industrial waste remediation
  • Life insurance
  • For-profit sports teams
  • Management consulting
  • Residential rental property management
  • TikTok influencers
  • Social media marketing agencies
  • HVAC service contractors
  • Tortilla manufacturing

And many others. Our reports also come with a 30-day guarantee. If our research doesn’t help you solve your problem, we’ll make it right or give you a full refund because we believe research is only as useful as the decisions it helps you make.

How to hire an independent contractor (tax guide)


If you run a business and want to hire independent contractors (such as freelancers) to do work for your business, then you’ll need to follow some rules to avoid problems with the IRS. In this article, I’ll cover exactly what you need to do to stay compliant.

1. Collect a form W-9 from the contractor

The very first thing you need to do is collect a form W-9 (or W-8 for non U.S. contractors) from your contractor. You don’t have to send this form to the IRS, but you do have to keep it in your records in case you are ever audited. You’ll also need the information on the form to fill out 1099 forms which you *do* have to share with the IRS.

I have another article explaining exactly how an independent contractor is supposed to fill out form W-9.

EXCEPTION: If pay a contractor less than $600 during the entire year, then you don’t need to worry about any of that. In this case, you don’t have to collect a W-9 and you don’t have to provide a form 1099 to either the IRS or the contractor.

2. File a form 1099-NEC & send a copy to the contractor

Prior to 2020, businesses would use form 1099-MISC to report payments to independent contractors. In 2021 and beyond, businesses must instead use form 1099-NEC.

After the end of each year, you have to file a form 1099-NEC with the IRS by January 31 (or the first business day after that if January 31st is a weekend or federal holiday). You’ll submit the version of the form called “Copy A” (shown above) to the IRS. You’ll also need to send a copy to the independent contractor. This version is called “Copy B”.

EXCEPTION: If the independent contractor is registered as a C corporation or S corporation, then a 1099-NEC is not required. You can find out whether an independent contractor is a C or S corporation by looking at what they entered in section 3 of their form W-9.

NOTE: You can email Copy B of the form 1099-NEC to your contractor, but only if you first get their consent. If you don’t get their consent, you have to (physically) mail it to them.

To obtain consent for email delivery, you have to get their consent via email. According to IRS rules, your email requesting their consent must include the following:

  • An affirmation of the fact that, if the recipient does not consent to receiving an electronic copy, they will receive a paper one.
  • The scope and duration of their consent. For instance, are they agreeing to receive an electronic copy just this year or every year they work for you?
  • Instructions on how to request a paper copy from you (even if they give consent to receive an electronic one).
  • Instructions on how to withdraw consent. They may withdraw consent at any time in writing (electronically or on paper).
  • The conditions under which 1099-NEC forms would no longer be provided (for instance, if the contractor’s contract is cancelled or if you end up paying them less than $600 for their services).
  • Instructions on how they can update their information with you.
  • A description of the hardware and software they need to view and print the 1099-NEC form (e.g. a computer capable of running Adobe PDF Reader).
  • A date at which the 1099-NEC form will no longer be available. For instance, if you are making it available to download via your company’s website, you must tell them at what point in time the form will be removed from your servers.

3. Comply with state requirements

Every U.S. state has its own requirements. Most states require that you file a copy of 1099-NEC with them as well, but some do not. Additionally, some states impose requirements at the time you hire an independent contractor. This is even true of some states like Florida which doesn’t have any state income tax but still requires an informational filing when you hire an independent contractor (this is a relatively new rule that came into effect only in late 2021).