Today (January 26, 2021), Tesla held its earnings conference call for Q4 2021. The company beat estimates on both total revenue and non-GAAP EPS. However, despite the beat and the price target raises some analysts have implemented as a result, the market seems unimpressed with Tesla shares trading lower after the call.
| Metric | Barron’s Consensus Estimate | Actual |
| Q4 Total Revenue | $17.1 Billion | $17.7 Billion |
| Q4 Total Gross Profit | — | $4.85 Billion |
| Q4 Total GAAP Gross Margin | — | 27.4% |
| Q4 Operating margin | — | 14.7% |
| Q4 EPS (fully diluted, GAAP) | — | $2.05 |
| Q4 EPS (fully diluted, non-GAAP) | $2.36 | $2.54 |
| Q4 Free Cash Flow | — | $2.78 Billion |
2022 Guidance
Looking forward, Tesla expects supply shortages to continue to be an issue in 2022. As a result, Elon explained
“We will not be introducing new vehicle models this year, because we will be parts-constrained… We will however be doing a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles… cybertruck, semi, roadster, .. optimus.”
– Elon Musk
However, Elon did express optimism that the chip shortage problem will be resolved by the end of 2022 or possibly the beginning of 2023. In fact, he described the huge number of chip fabrication facilities being built and the frenzy of “companies overordering for chips” as being an overreaction to irrationally elevated consumer demand during the pandemic–an irrational level of demand that Musk likened to that for toilet paper which led to toilet paper shortages despite the fact that there was no long term need for significantly more butt-wiping. This comical yet somewhat ominous analogy from someone so deeply embedded in chip, electronic, and automotive supply chains might be reason for a somewhat bearish macroeconomic outlook for 2022 or 2023 as a potentially excessive number of chips reaches a market where demand has cooled.
In more Tesla-specific forecasts, Musk and other Tesla executives expect the following in 2022:
- First delivery of vehicles using 4680 cells
- Full self driving capability that is demonstrably safer than a human driver
Looking further into the future beyond just 2022, Tesla expects its software business to become increasingly important relative to auto hardware as full self-driving software should make a car “5-times” more valuable than a non fully self-driving car.
“Software is really the segment of the business to pay attention to long term… including robotaxis and full self-driving… everything pales in comparison to robotaxis or full self-driving [with respect to software]”
– Elon Musk
Going yet further into the future, Musk sees Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot worker project) as having enormous potential.
“Optimus, the humanoid robot project, has the possibility of becoming significantly more important than the vehicle business over time.”
– Elon Musk
You can read Tesla’s full presentation that accompanied the earnings call here.