Google search data implies Americans are scared


Over the past 7 days, Google search volume for queries containing the word “recession” have more than doubled (see graph below):

Various versions of the query “what is a bear market” surged over 50-fold.  Additionally, variations of many other fear-sentiment queries have increased in volume:

  • “what happens during a recession”
  • “recession vs bear market”
  • “how long will this recession last”
  • “how long do bear markets last”
  • “how to prepare for a recession”
  • “recession-proof businesses”
  • “recession-proof jobs”
  • “will i lose my job in a recession”
  • “what to do with 401k during recession”

These are opportunities for anyone in the recruiting, employment services, or financial services industries (because you have the answers & expertise to help people answer the queries above).

For other consumer-facing businesses, this data is a warning.  The queries indicate a growing fear among Americans that they will lose their job and/or lose their investments.  They also indicate growing financial conservativism with focus on “preparation”.  That means consumer spending will likely continue to decline in inflation-adjusted terms.  That will hurt the top line revenue of many consumer-facing businesses.

If you’re an investor, now is probably not the best time to buy the dip in stocks unless you’re a very good stock picker.

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Ricky Nave

In college, Ricky studied physics & math, won a prestigious research competition hosted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, started several small businesses including an energy chewing gum business and a computer repair business, and graduated with a thesis in algebraic topology. After graduating, Ricky attended grad school at Duke University in the mathematics PhD program where he worked on quantum algorithms & non-Euclidean geometry models for flexible proteins. He also worked in cybersecurity at Los Alamos during this time before eventually dropping out of grad school to join a startup working on formal semantic modeling for legal documents. Finally, he left that startup to start his own in the finance & crypto space. Now, he helps entrepreneurs pay less capital gains tax.

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